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The role of the tutorials is to provide a platform for a more intensive scientific exchange amongst researchers interested in a particular topic and as a meeting point for the community. Tutorials complement the depth-oriented technical sessions by providing participants with broad overviews of emerging fields. A tutorial can be scheduled for 1.5 or 3 hours.


Mission-Based Forecasting - Predictive Analytics for Complex Systems


Greg H. Parlier
United States
Brief Bio
A retired US Army Colonel, Greg was a paratroop commander in the 82nd Airborne Division for 8 years, and served in over 20 foreign countries during 5 deployments and 12 named operations. A West Point graduate with advanced degrees in National Security Studies, Operations Research, and Systems Engineering, he was a National Defense Fellow at MIT, distinguished graduate of the US Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and graduate of the Army War College. Since retiring he has been senior OR analyst supporting Multi-National Forces in Iraq, consultant to government organizations and commercial firms, and advisor to several foreign governments. He served on the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses for 12 years and is a past president of the Military Applications Society of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), was elected to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Fellow of the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, and serves on the board of directors for the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). Dr. Parlier is adjunct Professor of Operations Research at North Carolina State University, president of a small OR consulting business, and program chair for ICORES.

This tutorial presents a new demand planning concept for the large-scale global logistics enterprise supporting the US Department of Defense. Effectively integrating production planning, inventory systems, and distribution policies has been a persisting strategic challenge. For nearly three decades the Government Accountability Office has attributed these inadequacies to poor demand forecasting, ineffective inventory management, and inadequate strategic planning. Mission-Based Forecasting (MBF) is a new concept for demand planning which relates resource investment levels and distribution policies directly to mission performance outcomes, in short “resources-to-readiness”. MBF capitalizes on predictive analytics, innovative forecasting methods, condition-based maintenance (CBM), and prognostic algorithms to dramatically improve forecast accuracy, reduce excess inventory, and eliminate costly work-arounds while increasing equipment readiness in military organizations. Originally developed for aviation systems when the author was Deputy Commander for Transformation at the US Army's Aviation and Missile Command, MBF has since been extended to the other Military Services and adapted to ground systems. Theory, practical applications, and recent test results will be presented. Organizational challenges associated with transitioning MBF from concept to reality, and the potential for applying MBF to other enterprise endeavors, will be discussed.

Forecasting, demand planning, enterprise systems, adaptive regression, intermittent demand, condition-based maintenance, Internet-of-Things, predictive and prognostic analytics, management innovation

Secretariat Contacts
e-mail: icores.secretariat@insticc.org