The role of the tutorials is to provide a platform for a more intensive scientific exchange amongst researchers interested in a particular topic and as a meeting point for the community. Tutorials complement the depth-oriented technical sessions by providing participants with broad overviews of emerging fields. A tutorial can be scheduled for 1.5 or 3 hours.
Mission-Based Forecasting - Predictive Analytics for Complex Systems
Greg H. Parlier
Greg is a retired US Army Colonel. A West Point graduate and Air Defense Artillery officer, he began his 30-year career as a section leader in an airborne infantry battalion and retired as the senior, most experienced operations research analyst in the Army. A combat veteran with multiple tours in the 82nd Airborne Division, he also served as an assistant professor of operations research at West Point. His five OR assignments focused on building, developing, and leading successively larger analytical teams confronting increasingly more demanding transformational challenges in large, complex commands. The organization he led at US Army Recruiting Command earned distinction as a finalist for the INFORMS Franz Edelman Award. He holds graduate degrees in Operations Research, Systems Engineering, National Security Studies, and was a National Defense Fellow at MIT. Currently, Greg is an independent consultant and serves on the adjunct research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) where he has been an advisor to several foreign governments, and recently served as IDA’s team leader and senior deployed analyst in Iraq.
This tutorial presents a new demand planning concept for the large-scale global logistics enterprise supporting the US Department of Defense. Effectively integrating production planning, inventory systems, and distribution policies has been a persisting strategic challenge. For nearly three decades the Government Accountability Office has attributed these inadequacies to poor demand forecasting, ineffective inventory management, and inadequate strategic planning. Mission-Based Forecasting (MBF) is a new concept for demand planning which relates resource investment levels and distribution policies directly to mission performance outcomes, in short “resources-to-readiness”. MBF capitalizes on predictive analytics, innovative forecasting methods, condition-based maintenance (CBM), and prognostic algorithms to dramatically improve forecast accuracy, reduce excess inventory, and eliminate costly work-arounds while increasing equipment readiness in military organizations. Originally developed for aviation systems when the author was Deputy Commander for Transformation at the US Army's Aviation and Missile Command, MBF has since been extended to the other Military Services and adapted to ground systems. Theory, practical applications, and recent test results will be presented. Organizational challenges associated with transitioning MBF from concept to reality, and the potential for applying MBF to other enterprise endeavors, will be discussed.
Forecasting, demand planning, enterprise systems, adaptive regression, intermittent demand, condition-based maintenance, Internet-of-Things, predictive and prognostic analytics, management innovation